Trade set to plunge as COVID-19 pandemic upends global economy
World trade is expected to fall by between 13% and 32% in 2020 as the COVID 19 pandemic disrupts normal economic activity and life around the world.
The main points of the trade forecast can be found below:
- World merchandise trade is set to plummet by between 13 and 32% in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
- A2021 recovery in trade is expected, but dependent on the duration of the outbreak and the effectiveness of the policy responses.
- Nearly all regions will suffer double-digit declines in trade volumes in 2020, with exports from North America and Asia hit hardest.
- Trade will likely fall steeper in sectors with complex value chains, particularly electronics and automotive products.
- Services trade may be most directly affected by COVID-19 through transport and travel restrictions.
- Merchandise trade volume already fell by 0.1% in 2019, weighed down by trade tensions and slowing economic growth. The dollar value of world merchandise exports in 2019 fell by 3% to US$ 18.89 trillion.
- The value of commercial services exports rose 2% to US$ 6.03 trillion in 2019.